Feasibility & Appraisal
What is a Revenue Projections?
Author: Sage Outdoor Advisory
Quick answer
Forecasted income estimates for a property based on occupancy rates, average daily rates, and other revenue sources over a specific time period.
Understanding Revenue Projections
Revenue projections estimate how much income a glamping resort, RV park, or campground will generate over time. They combine occupancy assumptions, ADR or site rates, ancillary revenue (activities, retail, events), and seasonality into monthly or annual forecasts.
Feasibility studies usually model five to ten years with base, upside, and downside cases. Lenders scrutinize whether occupancy ramps, rate growth, and ancillary income are supported by market and competitive analysis.
Sage revenue projections tie directly to our market research and benchmark data from 350+ outdoor hospitality engagements. That linkage makes forecasts defensible in loan committees and investor meetings.
Understand the inputs in our ADR and occupancy rate glossary entries, or start a glamping feasibility study engagement.
Feasibility studies usually model five to ten years with base, upside, and downside cases. Lenders scrutinize whether occupancy ramps, rate growth, and ancillary income are supported by market and competitive analysis.
Sage revenue projections tie directly to our market research and benchmark data from 350+ outdoor hospitality engagements. That linkage makes forecasts defensible in loan committees and investor meetings.
Understand the inputs in our ADR and occupancy rate glossary entries, or start a glamping feasibility study engagement.
For operator perspective, listen to Are your units priced correctly? (Jasper Ribbers) on The Outdoor Hospitality Podcast.
Examples
- A feasibility study for a new 20-unit glamping resort includes 5-year revenue projections: Year 1 projects $420K revenue at 55% occupancy (4,015 occupied unit-nights) with $105 ADR, growing to Year 5 with $850K revenue at 80% occupancy (5,840 unit-nights) and $145 ADR as the property gains reputation and can command premium rates. These projections help lenders assess loan repayment ability and help investors understand when profitability will be achieved. The projection includes conservative, base, and optimistic scenarios to account for market uncertainty.
- An RV park owner creates seasonal revenue projections: Summer months (June-August) generate $280K quarterly with 85% occupancy at $95/night average rate. Spring and fall (March-May, September-November) generate $180K quarterly at 65% occupancy. Winter months (December-February) generate $95K quarterly at 40% occupancy. Total annual revenue projection = $735K. These seasonal projections help with cash flow planning, staffing decisions, and identifying when to schedule capital improvements during slower periods.
- A campground expansion project evaluates revenue impact of adding 25 new RV sites: Current revenue is $480K annually from 75 sites. The expansion would add approximately $160K in new revenue (25 sites × $65 average rate × 80% occupancy × 365 days = $474K, but accounting for startup ramp-up, Year 1 projects $160K additional). Combined with existing operations, total projected revenue grows to $640K annually. This revenue projection justifies the $320K expansion cost and helps secure financing by demonstrating increased cash flow potential.
Common use cases
- Feasibility studies
- Financial planning
- Loan applications
- Investment analysis
Related services
Frequently asked questions
- How accurate are revenue projections?
- Projections are estimates grounded in market data, competitor benchmarks, and operating assumptions. Accuracy improves when they are built inside a full feasibility study with documented demand and pricing evidence—not spreadsheet guesses.
- What time period do revenue projections cover?
- Feasibility studies typically forecast five to ten years, with year-by-year occupancy, ADR, and total revenue. Monthly seasonality may be shown for the first two operating years to illustrate cash flow timing.
- What revenue streams should be included?
- Include lodging revenue by unit type, seasonal RV or tent sites, retail, activities, event fees, and other on-site income. Sage models ancillary revenue separately when it materially affects lender coverage ratios.
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